Holtzman v Beauprez

Apparently, state Democrats figure that since they supported the Ref C tax increase, they get to decide how it gets spent:

Republican state lawmakers who opposed Referendum C are lining up with ideas on how Colorado should use the extra money the state will collect over the next five years, raising eyebrows among some of the Democratic leaders who fought hard to pass the measure.

Just two weeks into the 2006 legislative session, several Republican lawmakers who opposed lifting the state's revenue cap and pledged to be the state's fiscal guardians are pushing bills that would use some of that Referendum C money.

...

That litany has caused some Democrats to complain that those lawmakers don't have the standing to say what should be done with the money.

"These people chose not to be part of the solution," said House Majority Leader Alice Madden, D-Boulder. "Part of me says, 'Too little, too late.' They're a day late and $300 million short."

This explains why Alice Madden isn't House Speaker. And may soon be Minority leader.

In fact, it also indicates at least the second time that the majority Democrats have had to re-iterate that fact, indicating more insecurity than they'd like to let on. After all, the House rules are such that if the Dem caucus were united, this sort of browbeating wouldn't be necessary. The only way any of these ideas gain traction is if some Democrats support them, making the target of this outburst obvious.

It also suggests that the Republican gubernatorial nominee has a chance to carry down-ticket seats with him, if he chooses to.

Posted by Joshua Sharf at 01:27 PM | Permalink

Last week's rumors were true - the decision was made official this morning: Republican gubernatorial candidate Marc Holtzman has again bolstered his campaign with the announcement that former Speaker of the House Lola Spradley will be his running mate.

Spradley, who has been welcomed to the team with open arms, expressed her support for her new running mate's vision and philosophy. Among other things, she brings the credentials of a highly-respected term of legislative service and a strong base of popularity in the region of Pueblo and southeastern Colorado. There is excitement and enthusiasm among grassroots supporters across the state for Holtzman's decision and for the direction his campaign is headed. Following in the wake of last week's favorable poll numbers from an objective and reliable source, the Holtzman campaign is gaining some real momentum heading into the March caucuses.

Cross posted at Mount Virtus

Posted by Ben at 12:52 PM | Permalink | Comments (3)

The new reliable Rasmussen poll on the potential matchups in the upcoming Colorado governor's race has created a stir among the state's Republican insiders. Former University of Denver president Marc Holtzman benefits most from the news: his bona fides as a credible statewide candidate have been established. Not only is the ground game among GOP activists from the Plains to the Front Range to the Western Slope gaining him momentum with the party's base, the new Rasmussen poll affirms his legitimate status as a potential successor to Governor Bill Owens. Michael has some initial RMA analysis of the survey you should check out.

As a Holtzman supporter (full disclosure), I'm certainly pleased by the news - which is generating some buzz out there in the blogosphere:
- Of course, the Dead Governors started quite a conversation -
- Students for Holtzman comes to life with the good news that their candidate beats the currently declared Democratic frontrunner Bill Ritter in a head-to-head matchup -
- Over at Red State, partisans spread the polling news from the Centennial State and provoke some bickering between supporters of the two candidates -
- A discussion thread is underway at Free Republic on the same topic -
- Terri at GOPUSA Colorado has posted the information -

The earliest echoes of national interest into the important Colorado gubernatorial race... you know where you need to look to stay updated on what will be going on. The next important date on the calendar here is March 21, when Republicans convene in their caucuses to select delegates to the State Assembly - scheduled for May 20. A candidate needs to earn at least 30 percent of the delegates' support to get on the primary ballot. And then the Beauprez-Holtzman showdown likely will gain a lot of steam. Stay tuned.

Cross posted at Mount Virtus

Posted by Ben at 05:40 PM | Permalink

Surprising Governor's Poll

Rasmussen has a poll out showing some surprising early numbers regarding the race for Governor.

Matched against Republican Congressman Bob Beauprez, Hickenlooper leads 43% to 38% in our survey of 500 likely voters. Matched against University of Denver President Marc Holtzman, Hickenlooper leads more comfortably, 46% to 36%.

No other Democrat pursuing the nomination currently does as well. Former Denver district attorney Bill Ritter is neck and neck with Beauprez. Ritter narrowly trails Holtzman, 39% to 35%.

What I find most interesting is how, looking at the GOP numbers, it would appear that the primary race is basically neck-and-neck. Beauprez appears to be about +5 relative to Hick, but -3 relative to Ritter. Though a very imprecise way to read numbers, it does look very interesting on the GOP side. And if you factor in what would appear to be a fairly advanced ground game already in place for the Holtzman campaign, you have the makings of a hotly-contested race.

Posted by Michael at 12:40 AM | Permalink

Bob Beauprez is going to be discussing immigration reform with Lou Dobbs this afternoon at 4PM MST.

While Beauprez's current focus needs to be on the national picture, it'll be interesting to see if Dobbs brings up the Governor's race, and what powers the states actually have to affect this issue.

Posted by Joshua Sharf at 07:37 AM | Permalink

Karen Crummy of The Denver Post reports this morning that the Marc Holtzman campaign is courting former House Speaker Lola Spradley as his gubernatorial running mate. The salient observation from the article is that Spradley does not fit the campaign's recent anti-establishment tone. Republican consultant Katy Atkinson astutely observes that Holtzman "could be trying to balance the ticket."

To me it appears that Holtzman may be backing off the strident attack footing that resulted in some bad press last week. Floating Spradley's name as a potential running mate might refocus and stabilize the direction of his unconventional, heavily grassroots campaign. Spradley, who hails from tiny Beulah north of Pueblo, was Colorado's first-ever female Speaker of the House. While she has her conservative bona fides with a solid legislative record and open opposition to last fall's Referendum C tax increase, she may be most regarded in some circles for joining Democratic Congressman Mark Udall to lead the charge in the 2004 campaign to mandate the use of renewable energy. As such, Spradley was an articulate spokesperson for an overwhelmingly successful statewide ballot initiative.

Although we have yet to hear the names of any other potential Holtzman running mates, his campaign could do a lot worse than to add Lola Spradley to the ticket. The news Colorado political insiders would wait to hear is whether she would accept such an offer.

Meanwhile, in other campaign news, Pueblo School District 60 Superintendent Joyce Bales (a reported "education adviser" to the Holtzman campaign) has accepted a new job in California, according to today's edition of the Pueblo Chieftain. Bales will be noted for trying to buck the status quo on some matters and bring creative efforts toward academic improvement in Pueblo.

Cross posted at Mount Virtus

Posted by Ben at 08:35 AM | Permalink | Comments (2)

Unlike most Coloradans, I am in the state less than full time these days. Unlike the election of 2004, I am less involved in the up-close-and-personal, inside baseball actions of the committees aligned behind the Beauprez for Governor and Holtzman for Governor camps.

Like most Coloradans, I've come to rely more on the electronic than print version of the news. I don't use the term media on purpose. News is what I'm after -- not hype. Thus I turn to a few reliable sources (pure blogs of which I know or can specifically identify the author(s)) and some less so (online versions of newspapers, etc.). That's where I get my info. You should consider it as well. Both operate based upon an agenda. One pushes their agenda while the other is fairly adept at hiding theirs while professing not to have one. I think it's easier to filter out the agenda than to try to determine where it's hiding.

As I've mentioned, I participated -- well, really just listened in as my question never made it to the top of the queue -- in Marc Holtzman's reverse conference call Monday evening. One of the good things about these calls is that I have to do less planning in order to attend. Your phone rings as you're driving down the road, you answer and push a button or two, and you're in. I wasn't familiar with the name of a single person asking a question. Not such a big deal -- probably. Colorado is a big state -- approaching 4.5MM. I freely admit that I don't know everyone. Besides, that's a lot of names; although not as many unique identifiers as you might think. There are a lot of Bens and Bobs and Jims and Michaels out there, not to mention Sues and Nancys and Lisas and Judys. Could just mean that the Holtzman camp has adopted the Coors strategy of '04 -- focus on the independents and undecideds as the traditional R's and D's aren't going to go your way. Worked for Coors in round 1... But then there's that 'workhorse' comment from the other camp. Interesting. Deep Thoughts material? The only reason I bring this up -- and believe me it's only a thought based upon absolutely nothing -- is that the question popped into my head "...some of the questions sound awfully rehearsed...the topic keeps changing...the total message is getting out there...all within a restricted timeslot...interesting..." Push the # sign, wait for 45 minutes, see if your number comes up...oh well, maybe next time I'll win...

Today the question that is foremost -- well, not really, but as far as this post is concerned -- in my mind is "...why did Bob Beauprez pick the 17th of January to kick-off his campaign..." I doubt that it's a date that holds any significance but why? And at The Grizzly Rose? Oh that's right -- almost forgot -- The Stockshow's in town! Good idea! The reason for the question probably comes from the level of frustration experienced from repeatedly, over the last month or two, asking the question "Where's Beauprez?" Really. You probably don't ask yourself those questions, but then again you don't have a blog to keep up with. Holtzman has been on the trail, driving around the state, speaking to groups, rallying support, and building a team. One of the things that was drummed into my mind in Grassroots Activisim Class was 'get your name and face out front early and often.' Seemed to be working for Holtzman. Then again Beauprez, by virtue of his elected position, draws media attention like bees to honey. And by combination of his position and the fact that everyone knew he'd be in the race for governor...well, you just get lots of media attention for no cost. That could turn out to be a very good strategy. Especially if you believe the press releases on the websites as to who has earned how much money and how much money they have left in the bank. Not to infer that the checks have stopped coming in, but you build your campaign budget backwards. You adjust the current to assure that an adequate balance remains for the final drive.

Speaking of the drive, Hugh Hewitt will be at the LPR's Broadmoor Retreat in the Springs on January 27th. He's a big Cleveland Browns fan. I wonder if anyone will ask him about the Broncos and the drive?

Like I said...rambling if you like...

Cross posted on ClayCalhoun.com

Posted by Clay at 06:56 AM | Permalink

In some ways, this ought to be a fairly easy call for Rep. Beauprez. He's leaving the House, so he won't have to worry about repercussions when the plum assignments are handed out. He's not pulling in much national money at this point, and his big local donors - who might night like Shadegg's untidiness - are already committed. After all, nobody's gonna get Pete Coors to do this again.

After having kept his head down during C&D, it's a chance for Beauprez to make a clear statement about the kind of party he really wants to inhabit.

UPDATE: A commenter points out that the National Journal is reporting Beauprez as committed to Blunt. The date of the posting is 1/14, which suggests that it was working off a slightly older list than that. This was before, or close to, the time Shadegg actually announced, at a time when Blunt was trying to sell the fiction that he had it all locked up.

Even public committments are next-to-impossible to enforce. Beauprez could argue that he committed too early & he's sorry about that, but that Shadegg hadn't yet entered the race and, after all, it's better to say something publicly rather than do the traditional private-ballot back-stabbing thing and wait until the vote.

Posted by Joshua Sharf at 01:26 PM | Permalink | Comments (1)

As a Congressman, Bob Beauprez usually isn't dealing directly with the same issues he would as governor. Immigration is one counterexample, where he's helped sponsor a tough border control bill. So are taxes, where in 2003, he supported a bill to reduce capital gains, dividend, and income taxes.

Another is the House leadership race. Rep. Beauprez hasn't yet announced a candidate to support, but he's a member of the fiscally conservative Republican Study Committee, led by Rep. John Shadegg. Shadegg is a reliable conservative, fiscally sound, and squeaky-clean ethically. At issue is both what Rep. Beauprez does and what the RSC as a whole does.

Rich Lowry has pointed out that waiting too long to endorse might doom Shadegg's candidacy. It might also provide cover to people who don't really want him elected.

While, as Michael Barone notes, there's little point in handicapping such a race, and the that doesn't mean we can't ask the representatives who they're backing. The vote may be private, but public statements are on the record. If Beauprez were to make a strong public statement in favor of Shadegg, or to argue that the RSC should declare now rather than later, it would make a strong impression on conservatives who want the party to clean up its act for real.

Beauprez does operate at something of a disadvantage, since he needs to deal with practical issues as an elected official, in a way that Holtzman does not. The House leadership race can provide one barometer of where he wants the party to go when it's under pressure.

Posted by Joshua Sharf at 07:12 AM | Permalink

The RMA (in the persons of Ben DeGrow, the Kestrel, and me) had a chance to interview Governor Owens after yesterday's State of the State address, and the last question asked was about his role in the ongoing Republican gubernatorial nominating process. In short, whether or not it made sense for him to have a role.

His answer can be summarized (not quoted) as follows: He intends to keep a low profile, but is backing Rep. Beauprez. His main purpose in doing so is to preserve party unity, since he sees a practical need for the conservatives in the party to work with its more centrist members, something that neither side always appreciates. Owens told Holtzman that he was backing Beauprez even before Holtzman decided to get into the race, and that Holtzman shouldn't be surprised. Owens seemed genuinely offended that Holtzman would run his campaign against him, and promised that "human nature would kick in," and he would defend his record. In any event, he'd like to be in a position to help whomever the nominee is to win the general.

Everyone wants to win - the Governor's Mansion and at least one house of the legislature if possible. Still, Owens was largely behind the whole Pete Coors thing in 2004, and in the two interviews we've conducted so far, it's clear that Holtzman has more ideas ready to go than Beauprez does. If John Kerry in 04 or the British Tories over the last decade hold any lesson, it's that electability isn't enough to get you elected.

That's not to say Beauprez can't or won't win. It's not to say that by the time people start paying attention, he'll have enough well thought-out policy proposals to fill Ken Salazar's pick-up truck. But Dick Wadhams - remember Dick Wadhams, Governor? - is a big fan of primaries, figuring it makes a better candidate come October. Getting outside help is liable to fool the nominee into thinking he's a better candidate than he really is.

I'm not sure the Governor should be involved here. (Recall the 1988 Presidential race, where the Republicans held neither house of Congress, and yet Ronald Reagan simply refused to insert himself into the nominating process.) I realize he genuinely believes that Beauprez is the better candidate, and he's certainly got the stronger presence in the state. But a debate about the party's character and direction is more or less inevitable upon the retirement of a popular governor, and using the considerable power of the governor's office to short-circuit that debate is likely to breed resentment rather than unity.

Posted by Joshua Sharf at 09:08 AM | Permalink | Comments (2)

The Holtzman for Governor campaign once again shows it's working hard, announcing its status as the first campaign to be certified to conduct voter registration drives.

“Our campaign is on track for victory in August and November," said GOP gubernatorial candidate Marc Holtzman. "And one of our key goals is to increase voter participation so more Coloradans will help select not only the Republican nominee in August, but also the state's governor next fall."

Back in Holtzman's November meeting with members of the RMA, he stressed his plans to rebuild the party structure. The campaign is about much more than just the candidate's leadership, personality, and qualifications, though those are significant considerations, too. The campaign's plan to hold voter registration drives in key counties across Colorado should yield results that benefit not only Marc Holtzman but the Republican Party as well. Kudos to the Holtzman team.

Cross posted at Mount Virtus

Posted by Ben at 08:27 AM | Permalink